Mac tool

Apple Matters’ Hadley Smith still claiming the operating system is dead.

Hadley Stern of Apple Matters declares Vista good enough for most users, which strikes the Macalope as not particularly surprising since most users are already using Windows.

But Stern believes the operating system race is over. And the Internet has won!

What this means for Apple is that the edge with OS X will disappear. And what is left? Better hardware? Perhaps. More software selection? Certainly not. The so-called advantages of a closed hardware/software platform? Most assuredly not as iTunes availability and success on the Windows platform shows.

Not having to go through the technological equivalent of a proctologic exam when registering your products?  Maybe.  An operating system that doesn’t throw up a thousand modal warning screens every time you try to do something because that’s the only way they could think of to fix their security problem – by making everything so difficult that you don’t even want to use it anymore?  Mmm, could be.

Etc. Etc.

Stern seems to believe that the development of operating systems will cease after Vista is released and seems to not know about this “Leopard” of which we speak.

All signs in the future point to the end of the importance of the operating system. Or, maybe it is time for Apple to start thinking about what needs to come next.

Phew.  All the pedanticism of Jef Raskin without any of the vision.

This is a familiar refrain from Stern – having recently argued that because most anyone would choose a Windows machine with an Internet connection over a Mac without one, the operating system doesn’t matter anymore.  The Macalope is loath to get into this because it leads to endless analogies and absurd desert island scenarios, but this is the beat the Macalope chose so it’s a little late to complain about it now.

Reduced to their most basic purpose, operating systems are tools you use to accomplish something.  When given the choice between accomplishing that thing and not accomplishing that thing, it should prove unsurprising that 99 out of 10 [sic] users are going to choose to accomplish that thing.

They are also likely to choose to not get stuffed in a duffle bag full of angry bees and beaten with sticks.  Again, not surprising.

Stern wants to pretend that this is something new.  It is not.  This is the way it has been since tools were first invented.  If you could have asked an australopithecus if he’d prefer a large bone to beat a boar to death with or a leafy frond, he’d have knocked you over, taken the bone and beaten both you and the boar to death with it.  So, yes, the Macalope will happily stipulate the point that between a tool that gets the job done and one that doesn’t, the one that does is more useful.

Yippee.

This says nothing about how quickly and efficiently the job gets done, or how fricking awesome you look doing it.

Perhaps it’s that Microsoft has been out of the fight for five years that’s causing Stern to believe we’ll reach the end of history when Vista is released.  But here in 2006, we’re still years away from an “always on” zero-latency Internet with applications that don’t look like “teh azz”.

So let’s not pretend otherwise.

But we can all laugh about it now…

eWeek piece seems a little inappropriate.

Perusing Peter Coffee’s Dirty Dozen IT Embarrassments, the Macalope was a little surprised by the jovial cartoon that accompanies number 3.

In this instance, eWeek probably should have reconsidered the format of the piece based on the content.

UPDATE:  Peter Coffee responds in comments:

We wrestled with precisely this question during development of this list; my conclusions, and my decision to use the incident as one of our twelve examples, are elaborated at [this link].

I invite discussion there.

Dear Walt Mossberg of The Wall Street Journal:

Walt Mossberg shows the silly pundits how its done.

The Macalope just finished reading your review of the new iPods, The New iPod: Ready for Battle? (subscription only) (thanks to Brian in comments for a non-subscription link), and as a follower of iPod punditry, he was confused.

Next month marks the fifth anniversary of one of the most successful products of the digital era, Apple Computer’s iPod music player. Since 2001, potential iPod-killers have come and gone like autumn foliage. Apple claims an astonishing 76% market share in the U.S. for the iPod and an equally amazing 88% share of the U.S. legal music download market for its companion iTunes online store. Over 60 million iPods and 1.5 billion songs have been sold.

Well, yes, but where’s the reference to how iPod sales fell leading up to the day before the Showtime event? Clearly the devastating decline from Apple’s monstrous first fiscal quarter right up to the announcement of new models means the iPod is doomed. You should look into that.

But, Walt, that’s not the only place where you drop the ball of conventional iPod punditry. You mention the Zune and RealNetworks’ forthcoming player as potential threats, but then just launch into your iPod review.

Still, this autumn, the iPod could face its greatest challenge. Microsoft, after failing for years to combat the iconic gadget, will launch a new assault Nov. 14 with a player called Zune.

Not only that, but this week, RealNetworks’ Rhapsody music service, the best of the iTunes competitors, will announce its own player, jointly developed with SanDisk, which is the second-place player maker, albeit a distant second.

So, this holiday season Apple has made some of the biggest changes to the iPod and iTunes in years.

No, no, no. Walt, Walt, Walt, this won’t do at all. You devote the rest of the article to reviewing actual features of iPods you can currently buy. That’s simply not how it’s done.

The Macalope shall elucidate.

Take a look at Vic Keegan, Sven Rafferty, Kieran McCarthy and Mike Elgan. You’re supposed to parlay the fantastic but ultimately unsustainable success the iPod has had into some kind of failure – don’t forget to call falling sales growth “slipping sales”! – and breathlessly list imaginary features the Zune may one day have and ask why the iPod doesn’t have those today.

It’s impossible to know if Apple can sustain its remarkably high market shares in the face of new competition, but it is going into the battle with better products at better prices.

Aagh!

Walt, no! The iPod is doomed! Doomed!

Tsk.

And you write for one of the most respected daily newspapers in the world.

Actually, that explains a lot.

Sincerely,
The Macalope

Dear Computerworld's Mike Elgan…

The Macalope looks at – sigh – yet another “Zune spells Doom” piece.

The Macalope read your latest correspondence entitled “Why Microsoft’s Zune scares Apple to the core” and he believes you may have accidentally left out a critical fact. Nowhere in the piece did the Macalope find the names of the employees at Apple you spoke with to back up your claim. Surely this was simply an oversight in editing, so please advise at your earliest convenience who at Apple is so a-scared of the Zune.

The Macalope has some other comments that he will break down as responses to your six points.

1. Microsoft is hatching a consumer media ‘perfect storm’.

Apple fans are overconfident in the iPod because Apple once commanded 92 per cent of music player market share, a number that has since fallen to around 70 per cent. About 30 million people own iPods.

Please define “perfect” as used in this instance, as when Paul Thurrott is asking re the Zune “What the heck are these people thinking?”, the Macalope is concerned that you might have the boat/storm metaphor backwards.

As for the market share figures you quote, the Macalope believes you’re comparing apples (no pun intended) and oranges. The 92 percent market share number was the percentage of the U.S. market for digital music players that were hard-drive based. The 70 percent number is the percentage of the U.S. market for hard-drive and flash-based digital music players. Apple’s market share was recalculated with the introduction of the flash-based iPod shuffle.

The Macalope will leave it up to his readers to decide if that error was due to laziness or dishonesty.

Frankly, the Macalope thinks the 92 percent number is a little silly. While he wouldn’t go as far as John Gruber did here (certainly not with the benefit of hindsight), there is little differentiation from a consumer’s perspective between hard-drive and flash-based units.

Also, you may not be aware of it, but the iPod actually works on Windows. And while the Zune ties into the Xbox, Microsoft has sold probably a bit over 25 million of those and Apple has sold over 60 million iPods.

2. The Zune is social and viral

Like a disease!

Think of it as a portable, wireless, hardware version of MySpace.

Ah! Like a venereal disease! One that’s easy to catch that leaves ugly festering sores! Gotcha!

3. Zune may have more programming

While Apple launched its movie business with movies from Disney (where Apple CEO Steve Jobs sits on the board), Microsoft has already lined up Twentieth Century Fox, Paramount Pictuers, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Universal Pictures, Warner Bros, Lions Gate Entertainment and MGM.

Which will be available… some time next year. Apple, by your assumption, will only ever have Disney.

4. Zune’s screen is better for movies

True. It is larger, but it’s the same resolution.

5. Zune is actually pretty cool

The Zune is unlike any product Microsoft has ever shipped. It’s actually very nicely designed, surprisingly minimalist and (dare I say it?) ‘cool’. (Zune marketing looks cool, too. The user interface is fluid and appealing – and, again, like MySpace – customisable. Users will be able to personalise the Zune interface with photos, ‘themes’, ‘skins’ and custom colours.

Oh, so they can crap it up. Make it look like a five-dollar whore, just like MySpace. Excellent.

The Macalope should warn you, the minute a 40-year-old says something is “cool” to “tweens, teens and 20-somethings”, it instantly becomes uncool.

Way to go, Mike.

Even if Apple is able to retain its lead, it could still be hurt – badly – by the Zune, which will capture mind share, grab market share and squeeze Apple on pricing.

OK, now you’re just making things up. The cheapest Zune – which, remember, is not on sale yet – is priced 99 cents higher than the second most expensive iPod.

Apple is scared. And for good reason.

Again, who did you talk to at Apple who said they’re scared? Please advise as nowhere do you quote anyone even off the record saying this.

Apple has recently and preemptively lowered the price of iPods, announced an iTV set-top box – which will ship later than Vista – and is probably working feverishly on a bigger-screen, wirelessly enabled iPod.

“Which will ship later than Vista”?

This production of Non-Sequitur Theater will return after a commercial break.

Please, please, please, for the love of god, please tell the Macalope what could possibly be the relevance of juxtaposing the fact that Microsoft announced an operating system upgrade five years ago and – after gutting feature after feature – is finally shipping it in January (maybe!), and the fact that Apple announced a product in September that it’s shipping in the first quarter of 2007.

Because any possible explanation must – by the laws of logic that govern the universe in which we live – be simply hysterical.

Ultimately, your failure to treat any of the Zune’s numerous shortcomings as such and your failure to even mention others (doesn’t play any currently available DRM-protected songs or videos) at all tend to make the piece seem more like propaganda than analysis.

There seems to be this great determination on the part of a number of silly pundits to get ahead of some imagined curve and be the first to declare the iPod dead.

All analysis must be made on the basis of currently available information, so the Macalope is not saying the Zune will never overtake the iPod. But let’s just say he finds the reports of its death to be greatly exaggerated.

Sadly, being a technology pundit is truly never having to say you’re sorry. You can be wrong for years and never lose your job.

It must be good work if you can get it, so hang on to that gig, Mike.

Sincerely,
The Macalope

Security professionals gone wild!

Ellch speaks at ToorCon.

News.com provides a Maynor and Ellch-friendly recap of Ellch’s ToorCon diatribe (antler tip to Wi-Fi Networking News), with two accusations that assume facts not in evidence.

Apple at the time critiqued the two for not proving their case, but came out with patches for Wi-Fi flaws last week.

Mmm, sweet, delicious assumption of guilt! As a matter of fact, no one has proved that Maynor and Ellch provided meaningful information to Apple or that the flaws that Apple patched were the same they asserted they could exploit.

While some in the Mac community see the cancellation of Saturday’s talk as proof that Maynor and Ellch are frauds…

Yes. Mac users simply must stop beating their wives.

Oh, and Ellch goes off on Apple without revealing anything. But we should all be used to that by now.

All the Macalope is asking is "Give iPhone rumors a chance."

The Macalope disagrees with David Pogue on the iPhone.

For the record, the Macalope likes David Pogue’s work, despite the fact that he – tongue firmly planted in his cheek – called Pogue a nasty name the other day.

But, the Macalope thinks he’s wrong about the iPhone here – the Macalope believes there will be one.

Pogue basically has two arguments against the iPhone:

  1. Carriers currently hold the power over hardware manufacturers and Apple would be unlikely to want to put itself in the position it would have to accede to their demands.
  2. iPhone rumors have been floating for several years now and still no iPhone.

Addressing the first argument, Apple’s uniquely positioned to change the balance of power with the carriers. They’ve sold over 60 million iPods to largely satisfied customers who would be more than willing to consider making their next iPod an iPhone.

And then there’s iTunes. Apple owns the largest channel for online music sales. People want their songs to play on all their devices. No iPod owner is going to buy a ZunePhone because they’d have to re-license all their (legally) downloaded music.

As for the second argument, well, Pogue more uses it as a means of pointing out that rumors do not a product make, and he’s right (crank-powered iBook, anyone?). But the set-top box was rumored for ten years and, lo and behold, Apple’s gonna sell one. While rumors do not mean Apple is going to make something, they don’t mean it isn’t going to make it, either.

Apart from disagreeing with his conclusion, however, the Macalope heartily agrees with the rest of the post.

I cannot imagine Apple giving veto power to ANYONE over its software design. It just ain’t gonna happen.

Neither can the Macalope, he doesn’t think that will be necessary. Apple has weight (it owns the digital music market). It can throw it around.

I think cellphones are as ripe for a radical rethink as the online music store was when Apple set up iTunes.

Quite. As a matter of fact, the Macalope would pay good money for a well-designed phone that’s easy to use and a beautiful marriage of hardware and software.

If only there were a company that does that kind of thing…

But let’s not go all wiggy every time someone passes around an iPhone rumor on the Web.

Indeed. Let’s not. But let’s also recognize that there is a great business opportunity here and Apple’s got all the right stuff to fill the gap.

Also, while Vic Keegan went off the deep end in proclaiming that Apple was losing the digital music war to ring tones, there is an increasing convergence between cell phones and digital music players. The Macalope’s gotta think Apple sees this coming and is heading it off at the pass.

Satire truly is dead.

SecureWorks and Apple now working together.

Today on Macworld’s web site (antler tip to Daring Fireball):

Apple and SecureWorks “Working Together”; Toorcon Presentation Canceled.

“SecureWorks and Apple are working together in conjunction with the CERT Coordination Center on any reported security issues,” SecureWorks said in a statement provided to Macworld. “We will not make any additional public statements regarding work underway until both companies agree, along with CERT/CC, that it is appropriate.”

Last week on Crazy Apple Rumors:

Apple/SecureWorks Controversy Ends Bizarrely.

In a bizarre ending to the Apple/SecureWorks controversy (also known as Security Bitch Watch), technology industry sources indicate that the two companies – previously at bitter odds over the security of Apple’s Airport hardware and drivers – were seen making out together in the parking lot behind the dumpster.

“Wha-?” said ZDNet’s George Ou upon hearing the news. “But… but… after all I did for SecureWorks I thought…

“I thought SecureWorks and I… were…”

Ou burst into tears and ran into the girls bathroom.

Zune reaches critical mass of craptacularosity

The Zune: currently no threat, if you didn’t know that already.

The Macalope was willing to give the Zune the benefit of the doubt for a while, but yesterday it reached a point where the negatives overtook the positives.

The Zune had three things the iPod didn’t: a physically larger screen, wireless and… brown. But as Pee Wee Herman said “Everyone I know has a big ‘but’.”

The screen is larger, but the resolution is still the same as the iPod’s. It has wireless, but it may drain the heck out of the battery and might only be useful if you run into Jim Allchin.

And, in the Macalope’s opinion, brown is a fine color for mythical beasts, but not for electronic devices. Many who have seen it in person say it has a nice retro look, but unless you’re going to put a tacky brown face plate on your cell phone, it doesn’t go with any of the devices you already own.  How’s a girl supposed to accessorize?

The Macalope believed the one thing that could make up for the Zune’s big “buts” and the iPod’s market advantage was aggressive pricing. But the Zune is actually 99 cents more expensive than the iPod. And that’s the cheapest Zune you can buy.  If you want to get play in the Zune pool, you’ve got to shell out $249.99.

The subscription service is a ridiculously high $14.99 a month or, if you want to buy songs individually, they’re roughly the same as iTunes’ 99 cents. Although, because Microsoft sells 80 Microsoft points for a dollar and songs are 79 points, you get one free song for every 396 you buy – so act now!

Well, not now, because you can’t buy it now. Act Nov. 14th!

But if you’ve purchased any DRM-protected songs (including the oxymoronically named Plays4Sure), they won’t play on the Zune. Remember when the news of the Zune was first leaked and we were breathlessly told by Microsoft boosters that all your iTunes songs are belong to us because they would somehow magically be re-licensed on the Zune because Apple stupidly published that API called NSListOfSongsToReLicense and Microsoft is just so mega-rich and mega-cool that they can do that and no one else in the world can and OMG, OMG, OMFG?!

Yeah, well, about all those songs you already bought… how’d you like to pay for them all over again? Or, better yet, every month for the rest of your life?

And the Macalope can’t help but wonder what the activation process is for the Zune, the store and the media. Does it involve 16-digit alphanumeric codes that you get after waiting on hold to talk to someone in Redmond? Frankly, the Macalope’s had enough problems with registering computers on iTunes, although the added ability to deregister them all in one swell foop has pretty much cleared that up.  Still, the process just doesn’t need to be any more complicated and you can forgive the Macalope if he doesn’t trust Microsoft to make a better mouse trap here.

Finally, the Zune’s supposed video advantage over the iPod may be difficult to enjoy. Microsoft’s store won’t be offering video on launch, so you have to bring your own.

Just, you know, make sure they aren’t DRM-protected. Because they won’t play.

Phew.

The Macalope’s not saying the Zune is DOA, but in its current form it’s remarkably troubled and is simply not a compelling competitor to the iPod. Microsoft has not leapfrogged Apple at all because each leap forward is matched by a leap back.